V-Lab
Continental AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
33.35%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
34.42%
increased by 0.72%
1 Month
37.54%
increased by 3.84%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1730 | 6.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0781 | 8.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8824 | 62.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0368 | 1.43 |
| γ2 | -0.0266 | -0.69 |
| γ3 | -0.0447 | -1.67* |
| γ4 | 0.0948 | 4.02*** |
| γ5 | -0.1421 | -5.99*** |
| γ6 | 0.1509 | 4.94*** |
| γ7 | -0.0886 | -2.12** |
| γ8 | 0.0137 | 0.35 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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