V-Lab
Continental AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
35.14%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
36.01%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
38.57%
increased by 2.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1557 | 6.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0785 | 8.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8819 | 61.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0347 | 1.34 |
| γ2 | -0.0241 | -0.62 |
| γ3 | -0.0456 | -1.70* |
| γ4 | 0.0954 | 4.06*** |
| γ5 | -0.1427 | -6.03*** |
| γ6 | 0.1515 | 4.97*** |
| γ7 | -0.0891 | -2.14** |
| γ8 | 0.0140 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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