Xi'An Peri Power Semiconductor Converting Technology Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
92.10%
increased by 8.87%
1 Week
92.98%
increased by 9.75%
1 Month
94.17%
increased by 10.94%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 7, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5629 | 4.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0935 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7133 | 6.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.8397 | 0.78 |
| γ2 | -4.0511 | -0.73 |
| γ3 | 0.9673 | 0.29 |
| γ4 | 0.2522 | 0.10 |
| γ5 | -0.4036 | -0.19 |
| γ6 | 3.0960 | 1.48 |
| γ7 | -3.5840 | -1.29 |
| γ8 | -2.8548 | -0.87 |
| γ9 | 9.6972 | 4.62*** |
| γ10 | -8.9545 | -5.21*** |
Persistence:
0.807
Half-life:
3 days
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