V-Lab
Samhallsbygg I Nor Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
34.58%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
38.86%
increased by 3.88%
1 Month
40.00%
increased by 5.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4677 | 2.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2712 | 3.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -11.2751 | -2.59*** |
| γ2 | 14.7364 | 2.40** |
| γ3 | -2.9634 | -0.97 |
| γ4 | -2.9938 | -1.26 |
| γ5 | 3.1814 | 1.26 |
| γ6 | 0.2815 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.271
Half-life:
1 days
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