V-Lab
Samhallsbygg I Nor Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
50.50%
decreased by 1.23%
1 Week
57.42%
increased by 5.69%
1 Month
59.34%
increased by 7.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4849 | 3.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.2942 | 3.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -10.6157 | -2.67*** |
| γ2 | 14.1526 | 2.49** |
| γ3 | -3.2844 | -1.09 |
| γ4 | -3.2517 | -1.39 |
| γ5 | 5.7413 | 1.90* |
| γ6 | -3.2447 | -1.10 |
0.294
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4849 | 3.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2942 | 3.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -10.6157 | -2.67*** |
| γ2 | 14.1526 | 2.49** |
| γ3 | -3.2844 | -1.09 |
| γ4 | -3.2517 | -1.39 |
| γ5 | 5.7413 | 1.90* |
| γ6 | -3.2447 | -1.10 |
Persistence:
0.294
Half-life:
1 days
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