Samhallsbygg I Nor Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
38.81%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Week
43.95%
increased by 3.87%
1 Month
45.35%
increased by 5.27%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2023 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4588 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2823 | 3.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -11.8021 | -2.45** |
| γ2 | 15.1161 | 2.24** |
| γ3 | -2.4217 | -0.73 |
| γ4 | -3.4930 | -1.23 |
| γ5 | 2.9977 | 1.01 |
| γ6 | 0.7378 | 0.38 |
Persistence:
0.282
Half-life:
1 days
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