V-Lab
Samhallsbygg I Nor Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
52.35%
1 Week
57.32%
1 Month
74.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2023 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2050913 trading days (~8138.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 381% more than positive returns
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1309 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8537 | 16.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3814 | 2.95*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9552 | 3.76*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2050913 days
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