V-Lab
Samhallsbygg I Nor GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
68.52%
decreased by 3.84%
1 Week
70.96%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Month
78.75%
increased by 6.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 47.7476 | 2.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0801 | 23.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9762 | 133.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8204 | 14.16*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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