V-Lab
Samhallsbygg I Nor GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
53.89%
decreased by 1.34%
1 Week
57.36%
increased by 2.13%
1 Month
68.04%
increased by 12.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2023 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 47.7649 | 0.71 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0790 | 6.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9784 | 38.70*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8243 | 3.92*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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