V-Lab
Samhallsbygg I Nor GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
68.71%
decreased by 4.86%
1 Week
71.01%
decreased by 2.56%
1 Month
78.54%
increased by 4.97%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-lifev = 2.73 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 51.2892 | 0.73 |
| αARCH | 0.0779 | 7.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9800 | 42.83*** |
| νDF | 2.7298 | 4.95*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 51.2892 | 0.73 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0779 | 7.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9800 | 42.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7298 | 4.95*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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