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V-Lab

Gdh Supertime Group Company GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

41.45%

decreased by 2.58%

1 Week

42.11%

decreased by 1.92%

1 Month

44.63%

increased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Gdh Supertime Group Company GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 16, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

115.8627
11.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1133
43.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5269
30.53***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days