Gdh Supertime Group Company GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
41.45%
decreased by 2.58%
1 Week
42.11%
decreased by 1.92%
1 Month
44.63%
increased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 115.8627 | 11.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1133 | 43.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5269 | 30.53*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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