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V-Lab

Gdh Supertime Group Company MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

40.63%

decreased by 14.18%

1 Week

40.03%

decreased by 14.78%

1 Month

39.85%

decreased by 14.96%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Gdh Supertime Group Company MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 16, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 145% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4040
24.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0800
3.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2392
-8.85***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.4659
0.36
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5828
0.41
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1546
0.07

Persistence:

0.364

Half-life:

1 days