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V-Lab

Gdh Supertime Group Company MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

34.09%

decreased by 3.82%

1 Week

38.04%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

39.34%

increased by 1.43%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Gdh Supertime Group Company MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 16, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 99% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3445
21.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0972
3.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1716
-6.50***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.3240
0.46
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5417
0.58
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2087
0.14

Persistence:

0.356

Half-life:

1 days