Gdh Supertime Group Company MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.09%
1 Week
38.04%
1 Month
39.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 99% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3445 | 21.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0972 | 3.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1716 | -6.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.3240 | 0.46 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5417 | 0.58 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2087 | 0.14 |
Persistence:
0.356
Half-life:
1 days
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