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V-Lab

Gdh Supertime Group Company Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

49.83%

decreased by 10.27%

1 Week

48.60%

decreased by 11.50%

1 Month

48.22%

decreased by 11.88%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Gdh Supertime Group Company S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 16, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.9192
6.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2190
2.51**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0800
0.67
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ125.6499
6.96***
γ2-32.7847
-4.91***
γ311.8507
1.71*
γ4-7.5370
-1.19
γ55.7745
0.91
γ6-9.8096
-1.42
γ712.0218
1.99**
γ8-1.5002
-0.32
γ9-7.5917
-2.35**

Persistence:

0.299

Half-life:

1 days