Mercedes-Benz Group AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
30.96%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
31.22%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
32.13%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2630 | 6.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0731 | 8.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9076 | 87.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0354 | 2.23** |
| γ2 | -0.0625 | -2.67*** |
| γ3 | 0.0500 | 3.71*** |
| γ4 | -0.0322 | -3.97*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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