V-Lab
Mercedes-Benz Group AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
23.13%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
23.78%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
25.94%
increased by 2.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2580 | 6.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0732 | 8.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9074 | 87.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0344 | 2.20** |
| γ2 | -0.0608 | -2.63*** |
| γ3 | 0.0485 | 3.63*** |
| γ4 | -0.0310 | -3.87*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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