Mercedes-Benz Group AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
24.74%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
25.02%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
25.93%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9173 | 4.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0726 | 7.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9013 | 75.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0637 | -1.18 |
| γ2 | 0.1283 | 1.56 |
| γ3 | -0.1128 | -2.00** |
| γ4 | 0.0278 | 0.62 |
| γ5 | 0.1059 | 2.40** |
| γ6 | -0.1570 | -3.18*** |
| γ7 | 0.0926 | 2.48** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9173 | 4.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0726 | 7.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9013 | 75.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0637 | -1.18 |
| γ2 | 0.1283 | 1.56 |
| γ3 | -0.1128 | -2.00** |
| γ4 | 0.0278 | 0.62 |
| γ5 | 0.1059 | 2.40** |
| γ6 | -0.1570 | -3.18*** |
| γ7 | 0.0926 | 2.48** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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