Mercedes-Benz Group AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
30.60%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
30.43%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Month
30.07%
decreased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 185% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0355 | 15.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8828 | 159.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0657 | 17.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0284 | 4.62*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0289 | 4.03*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9633 | 115.44*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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