Aqylon Nexus Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
47.71%
decreased by 3.98%
1 Week
48.34%
decreased by 3.35%
1 Month
49.98%
decreased by 1.71%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 7, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 20% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1410 | 31.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7825 | 54.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0278 | 4.21*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.03 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0958 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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