V-Lab
Aqylon Nexus Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
115.40%
increased by 7.91%
1 Week
115.65%
increased by 8.16%
1 Month
116.63%
increased by 9.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 7, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 167.5574 | 5.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1753 | 158.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 5,708.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8829 | 429.97*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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