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V-Lab

Ctac NV GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

42.90%

decreased by 2.30%

1 Week

41.64%

decreased by 3.56%

1 Month

38.74%

decreased by 6.46%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Ctac NV GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.9498
12.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0919
1.11
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9009
17.74***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

200.0000
0.01

Persistence:

0.901

Half-life:

7 days