V-Lab
Ctac NV GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
35.48%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
35.69%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
36.17%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.3698 | 10.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1145 | 1.57 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9157 | 27.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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