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V-Lab

Ctac NV GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

36.06%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

36.17%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Month

36.42%

decreased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Ctac NV GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 80.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 80.05 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.3710
3.44***
αARCH0.0832
0.44
βGARCH0.9234
7.86***
νDF80.0524
0.01

0.923

Persistence

9d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.3710
3.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0832
0.44
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9234
7.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

80.0524
0.01

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days