Ctac NV GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
42.90%
decreased by 2.30%
1 Week
41.64%
decreased by 3.56%
1 Month
38.74%
decreased by 6.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.9498 | 12.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0919 | 1.11 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9009 | 17.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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