V-Lab
Ctac NV GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
46.58%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
46.75%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
47.41%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~112 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0850 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9938 | 0.04 |
0.994
Persistence112d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0850 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9938 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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