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V-Lab
V-Lab

Ctac NV GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

46.58%

increased by 0.08%

1 Week

46.75%

increased by 0.25%

1 Month

47.41%

increased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Ctac NV GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~112 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0850
0.00
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9938
0.04

0.994

Persistence

112d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0850
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9938
0.04

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

112 days