V-Lab
Ctac NV APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
35.49%
decreased by 1.96%
1 Week
36.02%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Month
37.34%
decreased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. The volatility power δ = 1.18 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2225 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0715 | 0.85 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8576 | 53.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -0.51 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1753 | 5.11*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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