National Aerospace Fastener APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
64.83%
increased by 1.83%
1 Week
64.41%
increased by 1.41%
1 Month
62.89%
decreased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 03:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. The volatility power δ = 1.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1138 | 18.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0862 | 30.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9048 | 331.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0008 | -0.07 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7874 | 29.24*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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