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V-Lab

National Aerospace Fastener APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

64.83%

increased by 1.83%

1 Week

64.41%

increased by 1.41%

1 Month

62.89%

decreased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 03:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of National Aerospace Fastener APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 18, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. The volatility power δ = 1.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1138
18.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0862
30.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9048
331.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0008
-0.07
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7874
29.24***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days