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V-Lab

National Aerospace Fastener GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

60.59%

decreased by 2.77%

1 Week

60.26%

decreased by 3.10%

1 Month

59.03%

decreased by 4.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Aerospace Fastener GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 18, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1229
17.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0800
33.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9060
328.26***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days