V-Lab
National Aerospace Fastener GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
41.84%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Week
41.99%
decreased by 1.55%
1 Month
42.55%
decreased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1261 | 18.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0793 | 14.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9046 | 325.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0033 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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