V-Lab
National Aerospace Fastener GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
60.73%
decreased by 2.77%
1 Week
60.40%
decreased by 3.10%
1 Month
59.19%
decreased by 4.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1228 | 18.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0780 | 14.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9061 | 330.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0040 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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