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V-Lab

National Aerospace Fastener GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

56.27%

decreased by 1.91%

1 Week

56.04%

decreased by 2.14%

1 Month

55.18%

decreased by 3.00%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Aerospace Fastener GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 18, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1238
18.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0784
14.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9057
328.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0038
0.40

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days