V-Lab
National Aerospace Fastener GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
56.27%
decreased by 1.91%
1 Week
56.04%
decreased by 2.14%
1 Month
55.18%
decreased by 3.00%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1238 | 18.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0784 | 14.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9057 | 328.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0038 | 0.40 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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