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V-Lab

National Aerospace Fastener GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

41.84%

decreased by 1.70%

1 Week

41.99%

decreased by 1.55%

1 Month

42.55%

decreased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Aerospace Fastener GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 18, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1261
18.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0793
14.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9046
325.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0033
0.36

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days