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V-Lab

National Aerospace Fastener Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

66.81%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

67.60%

increased by 0.77%

1 Month

69.64%

increased by 2.81%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:47 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Aerospace Fastener SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 18, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3953
6.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1132
8.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8189
36.91***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.2035
2.49**
γ2-0.2912
-2.42**
γ3-0.0126
-0.14
γ40.2809
2.36**
γ5-0.3247
-2.38**
γ60.2915
2.37**
γ7-0.2853
-2.28**
γ80.2168
1.55
γ90.0773
0.49

Persistence:

0.932

Half-life:

10 days