V-Lab
National Aerospace Fastener Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
66.81%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
67.60%
increased by 0.77%
1 Month
69.64%
increased by 2.81%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:47 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3953 | 6.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1132 | 8.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8189 | 36.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2035 | 2.49** |
| γ2 | -0.2912 | -2.42** |
| γ3 | -0.0126 | -0.14 |
| γ4 | 0.2809 | 2.36** |
| γ5 | -0.3247 | -2.38** |
| γ6 | 0.2915 | 2.37** |
| γ7 | -0.2853 | -2.28** |
| γ8 | 0.2168 | 1.55 |
| γ9 | 0.0773 | 0.49 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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