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V-Lab

National Aerospace Fastener MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

50.29%

decreased by 2.12%

1 Week

51.53%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Month

53.74%

increased by 1.33%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Aerospace Fastener MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 18, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1382
26.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7474
65.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0087
-1.38
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0600
3.62***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0429
3.18***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9494
61.26***

Persistence:

0.881

Half-life:

5 days