V-Lab
National Aerospace Fastener MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
40.82%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Week
44.24%
increased by 2.48%
1 Month
49.91%
increased by 8.15%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1398 | 26.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7447 | 65.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0093 | -1.46 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0609 | 3.62*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0431 | 3.19*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9490 | 60.92*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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