V-Lab
National Aerospace Fastener MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
50.29%
decreased by 2.12%
1 Week
51.53%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
53.74%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1382 | 26.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7474 | 65.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0087 | -1.38 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0600 | 3.62*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0429 | 3.18*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9494 | 61.26*** |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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