V-Lab
National Aerospace Fastener MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
58.22%
decreased by 5.31%
1 Week
57.82%
decreased by 5.71%
1 Month
57.74%
decreased by 5.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1382 | 25.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7462 | 65.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0079 | -1.25 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0608 | 3.60*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0436 | 3.17*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9486 | 60.05*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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