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V-Lab

National Aerospace Fastener GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

72.06%

decreased by 7.97%

1 Week

72.25%

decreased by 7.78%

1 Month

73.00%

decreased by 7.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of National Aerospace Fastener GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 18, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 239 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

39.5019
7.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0980
111.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9971
2,530.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0224
165.79***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

239 days