V-Lab
National Aerospace Fastener Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
49.03%
decreased by 2.32%
1 Week
48.71%
decreased by 2.64%
1 Month
47.86%
decreased by 3.49%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3614 | 6.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1122 | 8.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8239 | 38.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1889 | 2.23** |
| γ2 | -0.2724 | -2.19** |
| γ3 | -0.0166 | -0.17 |
| γ4 | 0.2789 | 2.27** |
| γ5 | -0.3233 | -2.31** |
| γ6 | 0.3009 | 2.41** |
| γ7 | -0.3225 | -2.58*** |
| γ8 | 0.3165 | 2.35** |
| γ9 | -0.2162 | -2.26** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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