V-Lab
National Aerospace Fastener Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
53.45%
decreased by 2.93%
1 Week
52.42%
decreased by 3.96%
1 Month
49.56%
decreased by 6.82%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3875 | 6.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1121 | 8.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8244 | 38.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1972 | 2.35** |
| γ2 | -0.2837 | -2.30** |
| γ3 | -0.0120 | -0.13 |
| γ4 | 0.2768 | 2.26** |
| γ5 | -0.3224 | -2.30** |
| γ6 | 0.2998 | 2.39** |
| γ7 | -0.3221 | -2.58*** |
| γ8 | 0.3201 | 2.37** |
| γ9 | -0.2217 | -2.30** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
11 days
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