V-Lab
REA Group Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
32.34%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
31.73%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
30.85%
decreased by 1.53%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5338 | 7.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1220 | 7.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6944 | 17.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3489 | -5.17*** |
| γ2 | 0.5297 | 4.77*** |
| γ3 | -0.2617 | -3.15*** |
| γ4 | 0.1966 | 3.17*** |
| γ5 | -0.2296 | -4.36*** |
| γ6 | 0.2108 | 4.07*** |
| γ7 | -0.1194 | -2.24** |
| γ8 | 0.0043 | 0.08 |
| γ9 | 0.0254 | 0.53 |
Persistence:
0.816
Half-life:
3 days
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