V-Lab
REA Group Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
30.29%
increased by 1.15%
1 Week
30.30%
increased by 1.16%
1 Month
30.32%
increased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 1999 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6941 | 8.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.1190 | 7.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7108 | 19.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3110 | -4.73*** |
| γ2 | 0.4805 | 4.39*** |
| γ3 | -0.2461 | -2.96*** |
| γ4 | 0.1902 | 3.03*** |
| γ5 | -0.2277 | -4.26*** |
| γ6 | 0.2141 | 4.10*** |
| γ7 | -0.1282 | -2.43** |
| γ8 | 0.0131 | 0.23 |
| γ9 | 0.0217 | 0.46 |
0.830
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6941 | 8.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1190 | 7.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7108 | 19.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3110 | -4.73*** |
| γ2 | 0.4805 | 4.39*** |
| γ3 | -0.2461 | -2.96*** |
| γ4 | 0.1902 | 3.03*** |
| γ5 | -0.2277 | -4.26*** |
| γ6 | 0.2141 | 4.10*** |
| γ7 | -0.1282 | -2.43** |
| γ8 | 0.0131 | 0.23 |
| γ9 | 0.0217 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.830
Half-life:
4 days
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