REA Group Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
25.47%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
26.67%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
28.40%
increased by 1.97%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6484 | 8.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1187 | 6.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7114 | 18.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3242 | -4.79*** |
| γ2 | 0.4967 | 4.42*** |
| γ3 | -0.2490 | -2.94*** |
| γ4 | 0.1894 | 2.99*** |
| γ5 | -0.2228 | -4.15*** |
| γ6 | 0.1998 | 3.78*** |
| γ7 | -0.1031 | -1.89* |
| γ8 | -0.0159 | -0.27 |
| γ9 | 0.0418 | 0.85 |
Persistence:
0.830
Half-life:
4 days
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