Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

REA Group Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

30.29%

increased by 1.15%

1 Week

30.30%

increased by 1.16%

1 Month

30.32%

increased by 1.18%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of REA Group Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 1999 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6941
8.35***
αARCH0.1190
7.07***
βGARCH0.7108
19.10***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.3110
-4.73***
γ20.4805
4.39***
γ3-0.2461
-2.96***
γ40.1902
3.03***
γ5-0.2277
-4.26***
γ60.2141
4.10***
γ7-0.1282
-2.43**
γ80.0131
0.23
γ90.0217
0.46

0.830

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6941
8.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1190
7.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7108
19.10***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.3110
-4.73***
γ20.4805
4.39***
γ3-0.2461
-2.96***
γ40.1902
3.03***
γ5-0.2277
-4.26***
γ60.2141
4.10***
γ7-0.1282
-2.43**
γ80.0131
0.23
γ90.0217
0.46

Persistence:

0.830

Half-life:

4 days