V-Lab
REA Group Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
24.79%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
26.52%
increased by 1.13%
1 Month
28.83%
increased by 3.44%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6579 | 8.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1205 | 7.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6973 | 17.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3212 | -4.94*** |
| γ2 | 0.4944 | 4.58*** |
| γ3 | -0.2515 | -3.08*** |
| γ4 | 0.1931 | 3.14*** |
| γ5 | -0.2291 | -4.37*** |
| γ6 | 0.2128 | 4.15*** |
| γ7 | -0.1236 | -2.36** |
| γ8 | 0.0069 | 0.12 |
| γ9 | 0.0261 | 0.55 |
Persistence:
0.818
Half-life:
3 days
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