V-Lab
GCM Corp Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
119.78%
increased by 0.66%
1 Week
118.61%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
115.67%
decreased by 3.45%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1350 | 5.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0441 | 3.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8790 | 20.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2626 | 0.69 |
| γ2 | -0.0111 | -0.02 |
| γ3 | -0.8453 | -2.05** |
| γ4 | 1.1894 | 3.19*** |
| γ5 | -0.6646 | -1.34 |
| γ6 | -0.4040 | -0.65 |
| γ7 | 0.8241 | 1.93* |
| γ8 | -0.0307 | -0.08 |
| γ9 | -0.9984 | -2.11** |
| γ10 | 0.9876 | 2.94*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
Other GCM Corp Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities