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V-Lab

GCM Corp Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

104.87%

decreased by 2.29%

1 Week

105.40%

decreased by 1.76%

1 Month

106.70%

decreased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GCM Corp Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1354
5.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0443
3.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8781
20.90***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.2664
0.70
γ2-0.0255
-0.04
γ3-0.8205
-2.01**
γ41.1656
3.14***
γ5-0.6529
-1.31
γ6-0.4127
-0.65
γ70.8528
1.91*
γ8-0.0755
-0.21
γ9-0.9783
-2.09**
γ101.0003
2.95***

Persistence:

0.922

Half-life:

9 days