V-Lab
GCM Corp Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
104.87%
decreased by 2.29%
1 Week
105.40%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Month
106.70%
decreased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1354 | 5.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0443 | 3.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8781 | 20.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2664 | 0.70 |
| γ2 | -0.0255 | -0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.8205 | -2.01** |
| γ4 | 1.1656 | 3.14*** |
| γ5 | -0.6529 | -1.31 |
| γ6 | -0.4127 | -0.65 |
| γ7 | 0.8528 | 1.91* |
| γ8 | -0.0755 | -0.21 |
| γ9 | -0.9783 | -2.09** |
| γ10 | 1.0003 | 2.95*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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