V-Lab
Varopakorn Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
124.21%
decreased by 24.71%
1 Week
110.49%
decreased by 38.43%
1 Month
79.39%
decreased by 69.53%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5089 | 5.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2018 | 6.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6654 | 16.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3436 | 3.39*** |
| γ2 | -0.7303 | -4.36*** |
| γ3 | 0.5604 | 4.07*** |
| γ4 | -0.1786 | -1.41 |
| γ5 | -0.0166 | -0.12 |
| γ6 | 0.0482 | 0.36 |
| γ7 | -0.1281 | -1.03 |
| γ8 | 0.3000 | 2.62*** |
| γ9 | -0.4289 | -3.92*** |
| γ10 | 0.3424 | 4.32*** |
Persistence:
0.867
Half-life:
5 days
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