V-Lab
Varopakorn Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
36.77%
increased by 1.73%
1 Week
38.37%
increased by 3.33%
1 Month
41.12%
increased by 6.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5029 | 5.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.2027 | 6.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6633 | 16.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3382 | 3.33*** |
| γ2 | -0.7236 | -4.32*** |
| γ3 | 0.5596 | 4.08*** |
| γ4 | -0.1798 | -1.42 |
| γ5 | -0.0149 | -0.11 |
| γ6 | 0.0454 | 0.34 |
| γ7 | -0.1241 | -0.99 |
| γ8 | 0.2970 | 2.59*** |
| γ9 | -0.4303 | -3.97*** |
| γ10 | 0.3465 | 4.41*** |
0.866
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5029 | 5.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2027 | 6.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6633 | 16.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3382 | 3.33*** |
| γ2 | -0.7236 | -4.32*** |
| γ3 | 0.5596 | 4.08*** |
| γ4 | -0.1798 | -1.42 |
| γ5 | -0.0149 | -0.11 |
| γ6 | 0.0454 | 0.34 |
| γ7 | -0.1241 | -0.99 |
| γ8 | 0.2970 | 2.59*** |
| γ9 | -0.4303 | -3.97*** |
| γ10 | 0.3465 | 4.41*** |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
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