V-Lab
Varopakorn Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
26.36%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
29.12%
increased by 2.20%
1 Month
34.13%
increased by 7.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5107 | 5.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1704 | 6.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7193 | 19.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3396 | 3.29*** |
| γ2 | -0.7178 | -4.20*** |
| γ3 | 0.5467 | 3.83*** |
| γ4 | -0.1733 | -1.30 |
| γ5 | -0.0184 | -0.13 |
| γ6 | 0.0564 | 0.41 |
| γ7 | -0.1408 | -1.11 |
| γ8 | 0.3071 | 2.65*** |
| γ9 | -0.4254 | -3.70*** |
| γ10 | 0.3344 | 3.96*** |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
Other Varopakorn Co Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities