V-Lab
Varopakorn Co MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
85.95%
decreased by 2.27%
1 Week
86.51%
decreased by 1.71%
1 Month
88.66%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 200 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~200 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2932 | 1.73* |
| αARCH | 0.0681 | 5.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9285 | 90.65*** |
0.997
Persistence200d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2932 | 1.73* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0681 | 5.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9285 | 90.65*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
200 days
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