V-Lab
Varopakorn Co AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
54.46%
decreased by 3.10%
1 Week
56.41%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Month
61.96%
increased by 4.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9383 | 4.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.1432 | 6.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8139 | 30.33*** |
| γleverage | -0.3086 | -0.52 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9383 | 4.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1432 | 6.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8139 | 30.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3086 | -0.52 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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