V-Lab
Gujarat Energy Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
26.98%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
28.73%
increased by 1.33%
1 Month
30.22%
increased by 2.82%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3756 | 8.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1165 | 3.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5889 | 6.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.3125 | 5.72*** |
| γ2 | -0.5085 | -5.54*** |
| γ3 | 0.2932 | 3.48*** |
| γ4 | -0.1169 | -2.18** |
Persistence:
0.705
Half-life:
2 days
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