V-Lab
Gujarat Energy Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
30.84%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
32.03%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
33.19%
increased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3898 | 7.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.1261 | 4.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6068 | 7.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.2867 | 2.55** |
| γ2 | -0.2924 | -1.62 |
| γ3 | -0.1575 | -1.18 |
| γ4 | 0.3358 | 3.30*** |
| γ5 | -0.2372 | -3.91*** |
0.733
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3898 | 7.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1261 | 4.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6068 | 7.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.2867 | 2.55** |
| γ2 | -0.2924 | -1.62 |
| γ3 | -0.1575 | -1.18 |
| γ4 | 0.3358 | 3.30*** |
| γ5 | -0.2372 | -3.91*** |
Persistence:
0.733
Half-life:
2 days
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