Gujarat Energy Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
30.36%
decreased by 1.77%
1 Week
30.67%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Month
30.96%
decreased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3774 | 8.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1141 | 3.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6009 | 6.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.3167 | 5.69*** |
| γ2 | -0.5146 | -5.45*** |
| γ3 | 0.2960 | 3.42*** |
| γ4 | -0.1184 | -2.15** |
Persistence:
0.715
Half-life:
2 days
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