V-Lab
Gujarat Energy Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
34.69%
increased by 5.78%
1 Week
33.15%
increased by 4.24%
1 Month
31.69%
increased by 2.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3735 | 8.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1167 | 3.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5872 | 6.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.3106 | 5.75*** |
| γ2 | -0.5065 | -5.61*** |
| γ3 | 0.2947 | 3.55*** |
| γ4 | -0.1197 | -2.27** |
Persistence:
0.704
Half-life:
2 days
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