V-Lab
Gujarat Energy Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
29.61%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
30.33%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
30.97%
increased by 1.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3709 | 8.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1154 | 3.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5899 | 6.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.3084 | 5.77*** |
| γ2 | -0.5041 | -5.68*** |
| γ3 | 0.2955 | 3.62*** |
| γ4 | -0.1215 | -2.34** |
Persistence:
0.705
Half-life:
2 days
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