V-Lab
Gujarat Energy Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
35.10%
increased by 1.46%
1 Week
34.27%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
33.18%
decreased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 48% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6956 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1072 | 8.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6944 | 22.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1157 | 4.98*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6743 | 6.54*** |
Persistence:
0.792
Half-life:
3 days
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