Gujarat Energy Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.57%
decreased by 2.24%
1 Week
33.97%
decreased by 2.84%
1 Month
33.14%
decreased by 3.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 52% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6458 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1024 | 7.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7135 | 24.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1240 | 5.18*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6679 | 6.53*** |
Persistence:
0.806
Half-life:
3 days
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