V-Lab
Edip Gayrimenkul Yatirim APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
60.37%
1 Week
61.64%
1 Month
64.77%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1994 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 32% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.44 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6286 | 15.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2426 | 32.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7180 | 90.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0965 | -7.97*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4390 | 36.12*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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