V-Lab
Edip Gayrimenkul Yatirim GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
62.29%
increased by 1.47%
1 Week
62.96%
increased by 2.14%
1 Month
65.13%
increased by 4.31%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 21.4437 | 4.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1519 | 38.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9718 | 166.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6431 | 20.88*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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