V-Lab
Edip Gayrimenkul Yatirim Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
58.28%
decreased by 6.58%
1 Week
59.32%
decreased by 5.54%
1 Month
60.33%
decreased by 4.53%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5207 | 7.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2982 | 6.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4311 | 8.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0520 | 1.38 |
| γ2 | -0.1361 | -2.45** |
| γ3 | 0.1780 | 4.74*** |
| γ4 | -0.1460 | -3.66*** |
| γ5 | 0.0639 | 1.63 |
| γ6 | 0.0341 | 0.96 |
| γ7 | -0.0969 | -3.01*** |
| γ8 | 0.0638 | 3.09*** |
Persistence:
0.729
Half-life:
2 days
Other Edip Gayrimenkul Yatirim Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities