V-Lab
Deutsche Telekom AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
19.24%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
19.32%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
19.56%
decreased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8127 | 3.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.0755 | 7.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8733 | 49.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0708 | -0.95 |
| γ2 | -0.0644 | -0.62 |
| γ3 | 0.3148 | 5.05*** |
| γ4 | -0.2775 | -4.61*** |
| γ5 | 0.1558 | 2.28** |
| γ6 | -0.1366 | -1.87* |
| γ7 | 0.1625 | 2.37** |
| γ8 | -0.1244 | -1.91* |
| γ9 | 0.0496 | 1.01 |
0.949
Persistence13d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8127 | 3.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0755 | 7.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8733 | 49.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0708 | -0.95 |
| γ2 | -0.0644 | -0.62 |
| γ3 | 0.3148 | 5.05*** |
| γ4 | -0.2775 | -4.61*** |
| γ5 | 0.1558 | 2.28** |
| γ6 | -0.1366 | -1.87* |
| γ7 | 0.1625 | 2.37** |
| γ8 | -0.1244 | -1.91* |
| γ9 | 0.0496 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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