V-Lab
Deutsche Telekom AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
27.39%
increased by 6.57%
1 Week
26.81%
increased by 5.99%
1 Month
25.05%
increased by 4.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8125 | 3.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.0753 | 7.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8739 | 50.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0722 | -0.97 |
| γ2 | -0.0612 | -0.59 |
| γ3 | 0.3119 | 4.98*** |
| γ4 | -0.2761 | -4.58*** |
| γ5 | 0.1549 | 2.28** |
| γ6 | -0.1350 | -1.85* |
| γ7 | 0.1598 | 2.34** |
| γ8 | -0.1193 | -1.83* |
| γ9 | 0.0439 | 0.89 |
0.949
Persistence13d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8125 | 3.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0753 | 7.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8739 | 50.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0722 | -0.97 |
| γ2 | -0.0612 | -0.59 |
| γ3 | 0.3119 | 4.98*** |
| γ4 | -0.2761 | -4.58*** |
| γ5 | 0.1549 | 2.28** |
| γ6 | -0.1350 | -1.85* |
| γ7 | 0.1598 | 2.34** |
| γ8 | -0.1193 | -1.83* |
| γ9 | 0.0439 | 0.89 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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