V-Lab
Deutsche Telekom AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
30.64%
decreased by 1.55%
1 Week
29.76%
decreased by 2.43%
1 Month
27.06%
decreased by 5.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 1996 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8130 | 3.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0748 | 6.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8736 | 49.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0684 | -0.92 |
| γ2 | -0.0696 | -0.67 |
| γ3 | 0.3197 | 5.16*** |
| γ4 | -0.2806 | -4.69*** |
| γ5 | 0.1587 | 2.30** |
| γ6 | -0.1409 | -1.90* |
| γ7 | 0.1673 | 2.42** |
| γ8 | -0.1289 | -1.99** |
| γ9 | 0.0530 | 1.10 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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