V-Lab
Mustek Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
32.93%
increased by 0.62%
1 Week
35.29%
increased by 2.98%
1 Month
40.61%
increased by 8.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8192 | 6.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1331 | 7.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7914 | 32.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0644 | -1.32 |
| γ2 | -0.0147 | -0.19 |
| γ3 | 0.2686 | 4.19*** |
| γ4 | -0.4267 | -6.00*** |
| γ5 | 0.4510 | 5.63*** |
| γ6 | -0.3526 | -4.89*** |
| γ7 | 0.2173 | 3.87*** |
| γ8 | -0.1079 | -2.96*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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