V-Lab
Mustek Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
39.95%
increased by 2.94%
1 Week
40.98%
increased by 3.97%
1 Month
43.46%
increased by 6.45%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8223 | 6.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1332 | 7.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7914 | 32.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0621 | -1.27 |
| γ2 | -0.0198 | -0.25 |
| γ3 | 0.2750 | 4.26*** |
| γ4 | -0.4329 | -6.02*** |
| γ5 | 0.4543 | 5.64*** |
| γ6 | -0.3522 | -4.86*** |
| γ7 | 0.2162 | 3.84*** |
| γ8 | -0.1081 | -2.94*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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