V-Lab
Mustek Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
57.80%
decreased by 2.67%
1 Week
58.15%
decreased by 2.32%
1 Month
59.31%
decreased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1997 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-lifev = 2.35 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.6684 | 0.77 |
| αARCH | 0.0787 | 6.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9763 | 32.85*** |
| νDF | 2.3490 | 11.31*** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.6684 | 0.77 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0787 | 6.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9763 | 32.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.3490 | 11.31*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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