V-Lab
Mustek Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
58.95%
increased by 8.83%
1 Week
59.25%
increased by 9.13%
1 Month
60.28%
increased by 10.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1997 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-lifev = 2.34 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.8502 | 0.76 |
| αARCH | 0.0792 | 6.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9761 | 32.56*** |
| νDF | 2.3444 | 11.45*** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.8502 | 0.76 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0792 | 6.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9761 | 32.56*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.3444 | 11.45*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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