V-Lab
Mustek Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
37.46%
decreased by 1.64%
1 Week
38.95%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
41.52%
increased by 2.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1997 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0969 | 4.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7607 | 26.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0548 | 1.85* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.1711 | 2.64*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8312 | 6.05*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.885
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0969 | 4.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7607 | 26.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0548 | 1.85* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.1711 | 2.64*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8312 | 6.05*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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