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V-Lab

ams-OSRAM AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

69.05%

decreased by 7.31%

1 Week

76.35%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

83.23%

increased by 6.87%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ams-OSRAM AG MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 14, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0836
9.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4858
29.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3385
18.53***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0300
0.74
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0071
1.87*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9912
223.85***

Persistence:

0.739

Half-life:

2 days