Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

ams-OSRAM AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

68.72%

increased by 0.37%

1 Week

76.94%

increased by 8.59%

1 Month

84.01%

increased by 15.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ams-OSRAM AG MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 14, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0810
3.41***
βGARCH0.4786
6.02***
γleverage0.3459
2.82***
λ₁tau intercept0.0305
0.79
λ₂forecast adj.0.0074
2.51**
λ₃tau persistence0.9910
275.27***

0.733

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0810
3.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4786
6.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3459
2.82***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0305
0.79
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0074
2.51**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9910
275.27***

Persistence:

0.733

Half-life:

2 days