V-Lab
ams-OSRAM AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
68.72%
increased by 0.37%
1 Week
76.94%
increased by 8.59%
1 Month
84.01%
increased by 15.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 14, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0810 | 3.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4786 | 6.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.3459 | 2.82*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0305 | 0.79 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0074 | 2.51** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9910 | 275.27*** |
0.733
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0810 | 3.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4786 | 6.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3459 | 2.82*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0305 | 0.79 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0074 | 2.51** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9910 | 275.27*** |
Persistence:
0.733
Half-life:
2 days
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