ams-OSRAM AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
69.05%
decreased by 7.31%
1 Week
76.35%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
83.23%
increased by 6.87%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 14, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0836 | 9.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4858 | 29.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3385 | 18.53*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0300 | 0.74 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0071 | 1.87* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9912 | 223.85*** |
Persistence:
0.739
Half-life:
2 days
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