V-Lab
ams-OSRAM AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
84.75%
decreased by 4.06%
1 Week
86.60%
decreased by 2.21%
1 Month
88.20%
decreased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 14, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0813 | 9.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4783 | 28.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3456 | 18.73*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0306 | 0.73 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0074 | 1.89* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9909 | 215.55*** |
Persistence:
0.732
Half-life:
2 days
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