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V-Lab

ams-OSRAM AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

84.75%

decreased by 4.06%

1 Week

86.60%

decreased by 2.21%

1 Month

88.20%

decreased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ams-OSRAM AG MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 14, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0813
9.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4783
28.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3456
18.73***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0306
0.73
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0074
1.89*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9909
215.55***

Persistence:

0.732

Half-life:

2 days