V-Lab
ams-OSRAM AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
69.62%
decreased by 1.68%
1 Week
78.16%
increased by 6.86%
1 Month
86.31%
increased by 15.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 14, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0819 | 9.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4766 | 28.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3487 | 18.75*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0305 | 0.73 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0075 | 1.90* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9909 | 216.20*** |
Persistence:
0.733
Half-life:
2 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities