V-Lab
ams-OSRAM AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
62.74%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
62.43%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Month
61.32%
decreased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 14, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2623 | 2.01** |
| αARCH | 0.0202 | 1.74* |
| βGARCH | 0.9451 | 74.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.0256 | 1.30 |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2623 | 2.01** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0202 | 1.74* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9451 | 74.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0256 | 1.30 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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