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ams-OSRAM AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

74.33%

decreased by 2.23%

1 Week

74.01%

decreased by 2.55%

1 Month

72.82%

decreased by 3.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ams-OSRAM AG GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 14, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-lifev = 3.46 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst12.9413
0.88
αARCH0.0543
8.48***
βGARCH0.9895
80.03***
νDF3.4604
4.06***

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.9413
0.88
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0543
8.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9895
80.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4604
4.06***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days