V-Lab
ams-OSRAM AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
95.42%
increased by 6.69%
1 Week
94.78%
increased by 6.05%
1 Month
92.36%
increased by 3.63%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 14, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.9748 | 3.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0545 | 33.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9895 | 319.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4568 | 16.32*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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