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V-Lab

Esteem Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

58.45%

decreased by 5.74%

1 Week

65.33%

increased by 1.14%

1 Month

87.16%

increased by 22.97%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Esteem Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 6, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 191 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

481.5908
5.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1709
18.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9964
1,274.14***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.5928
32.68***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

191 days