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V-Lab

Esteem Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

49.37%

increased by 13.80%

1 Week

52.62%

increased by 17.05%

1 Month

63.87%

increased by 28.30%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Esteem Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 6, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 384 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~384 daysv = 2.95 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst375.1772
1.38
αARCH0.1724
5.39***
βGARCH0.9982
658.88***
νDF2.9483
5.47***

0.998

Persistence

384d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

375.1772
1.38
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1724
5.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9982
658.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9483
5.47***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

384 days