V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
155.36%
increased by 7.62%
1 Week
157.81%
increased by 10.07%
1 Month
166.84%
increased by 19.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 323.9168 | 5.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1380 | 16.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9933 | 725.56*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6540 | 22.25*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
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