V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
49.37%
1 Week
52.62%
1 Month
63.87%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 384 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 375.1772 | 1.38 |
| αARCH | 0.1724 | 5.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9982 | 658.88*** |
| νDF | 2.9483 | 5.47*** |
0.998
Persistence384d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 375.1772 | 1.38 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1724 | 5.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 658.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9483 | 5.47*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
384 days
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