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V-Lab

Esteem Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

190.95%

decreased by 27.56%

1 Week

192.17%

decreased by 26.34%

1 Month

196.93%

decreased by 21.58%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Esteem Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 6, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 245 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~245 daysv = 2.77 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run478.4771
1.35
αscore0.1845
5.76***
βpersistence0.9972
477.35***
νDF2.7699
7.06***

0.997

Persistence

245d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

478.4771
1.35
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1845
5.76***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9972
477.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7699
7.06***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

245 days