Esteem Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
190.95%
1 Week
192.17%
1 Month
196.93%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 245 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 478.4771 | 1.35 |
| αscore | 0.1845 | 5.76*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9972 | 477.35*** |
| νDF | 2.7699 | 7.06*** |
0.997
Persistence245d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 478.4771 | 1.35 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1845 | 5.76*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 477.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7699 | 7.06*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
245 days
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