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Esteem Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

54.06%

decreased by 7.37%

1 Week

59.75%

decreased by 1.68%

1 Month

78.20%

increased by 16.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Esteem Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 6, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 251 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~251 daysv = 2.62 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst480.0392
1.40
αARCH0.1714
4.87***
βGARCH0.9972
448.60***
νDF2.6155
8.93***

0.997

Persistence

251d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

480.0392
1.40
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1714
4.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9972
448.60***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6155
8.93***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

251 days