V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
58.45%
decreased by 5.74%
1 Week
65.33%
increased by 1.14%
1 Month
87.16%
increased by 22.97%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 191 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 481.5908 | 5.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1709 | 18.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9964 | 1,274.14*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.5928 | 32.68*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
191 days
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