V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
100.67%
decreased by 3.70%
1 Week
104.77%
increased by 0.40%
1 Month
105.99%
increased by 1.62%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -10.00) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.0000 | 6.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1635 | 7.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1381 | 11.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -10.0000 | -11.37*** |
Persistence:
0.302
Half-life:
1 days
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