V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
19.82%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
19.82%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
19.82%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3469 | 2.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9080 | 5.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 71.4390 | 2.24** |
| γ2 | -166.5276 | -2.40** |
0.908
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3469 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9080 | 5.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 71.4390 | 2.24** |
| γ2 | -166.5276 | -2.40** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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