V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
119.67%
increased by 0.64%
1 Week
120.11%
increased by 1.08%
1 Month
120.20%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1775 | 2.33** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0200 | 0.23 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 130.7619 | 3.72*** |
| γ2 | -172.4554 | -2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.020
Half-life:
0 days
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