V-Lab
DB Securities Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
63.96%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Week
66.67%
increased by 0.51%
1 Month
74.19%
increased by 8.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9924 | 6.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1123 | 9.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8423 | 54.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0503 | 1.50 |
| γ2 | -0.0108 | -0.21 |
| γ3 | -0.1756 | -4.67*** |
| γ4 | 0.2641 | 7.18*** |
| γ5 | -0.2242 | -5.90*** |
| γ6 | 0.1588 | 3.65*** |
| γ7 | -0.0725 | -1.67* |
| γ8 | -0.0353 | -0.76 |
| γ9 | 0.2562 | 3.62*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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