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V-Lab

DB Securities Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

47.53%

decreased by 2.18%

1 Week

47.76%

decreased by 1.95%

1 Month

48.66%

decreased by 1.05%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of DB Securities Co Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 213 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 14% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0732
18.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0879
28.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9029
476.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0119
1.97**

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

213 days