Fresenius Medical Care AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
33.01%
increased by 0.82%
1 Week
32.94%
increased by 0.75%
1 Month
32.66%
increased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 3, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 275% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 275% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0330 | 2.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0143 | 2.20** |
| βGARCH | 0.9562 | 157.42*** |
| γleverage | 0.0393 | 2.95*** |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0330 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0143 | 2.20** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9562 | 157.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0393 | 2.95*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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