V-Lab
Fresenius Medical Care AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
30.07%
decreased by 1.90%
1 Week
30.18%
decreased by 1.79%
1 Month
30.02%
decreased by 1.95%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 3, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 284% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 284% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0498 | 2.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6089 | 8.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.1414 | 4.25*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0102 | 1.89* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0170 | 3.69*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9801 | 189.61*** |
0.729
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0498 | 2.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6089 | 8.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1414 | 4.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0102 | 1.89* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0170 | 3.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9801 | 189.61*** |
Persistence:
0.729
Half-life:
2 days
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