V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
36.03%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
38.82%
increased by 2.41%
1 Month
38.73%
increased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1520 | 9.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3039 | 7.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0017 | -0.10 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6209 | 0.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0956 | 0.14 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7985 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
0.455
Half-life:
1 days
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