V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
31.84%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
34.46%
increased by 2.26%
1 Month
35.53%
increased by 3.33%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.1525 | 2.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3035 | 2.38** |
| γleverage | -0.0001 | 0.00 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6318 | 0.43 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0961 | 0.37 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7953 | 1.55 |
0.456
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1525 | 2.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3035 | 2.38** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0001 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6318 | 0.43 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0961 | 0.37 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7953 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.456
Half-life:
1 days
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