Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
42.14%
increased by 6.06%
1 Week
40.31%
increased by 4.23%
1 Month
39.77%
increased by 3.69%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1537 | 10.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3065 | 7.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0035 | -0.21 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6189 | 0.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0946 | 0.14 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7996 | 0.59 |
Persistence:
0.458
Half-life:
1 days
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