V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
37.11%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Week
39.29%
increased by 0.65%
1 Month
39.89%
increased by 1.25%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1517 | 9.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3039 | 7.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0019 | -0.11 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6245 | 0.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0967 | 0.14 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7969 | 0.57 |
Persistence:
0.455
Half-life:
1 days
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