V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
35.99%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Week
38.38%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
39.52%
increased by 1.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1533 | 10.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3071 | 7.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0014 | -0.08 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6158 | 0.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0937 | 0.15 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8010 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.460
Half-life:
1 days
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