Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
35.99%
increased by 1.23%
1 Week
36.52%
increased by 1.76%
1 Month
37.70%
increased by 2.94%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6117 | 0.87 |
| αARCH | 0.0557 | 1.74* |
| βGARCH | 0.8482 | 16.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.1390 | 1.23 |
| δpower | 2.0966 | 2.67*** |
0.907
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6117 | 0.87 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0557 | 1.74* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8482 | 16.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1390 | 1.23 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0966 | 2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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