V-Lab
Nissha Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
34.12%
increased by 1.34%
1 Week
36.24%
increased by 3.46%
1 Month
37.82%
increased by 5.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8585 | 7.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2321 | 14.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4676 | 15.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0519 | 1.42 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0260 | 7.97*** |
Persistence:
0.653
Half-life:
2 days
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