Av-Gad Holdings Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 19th, 2026
1 Day
33.32%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
33.61%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
34.16%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 2.59 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9259 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0435 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8210 | 37.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0289 | 0.89 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.5893 | 9.93*** |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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